Recent progress on combining geomorphological and geochronological data with ice sheet modelling,demonstrated using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet     

Jeremy C. Ely  Chris D. Clark  Richard C. A. Hindmarsh  Anna L. C. Hughes  Sarah L. Greenwood  Sarah L. Bradley  Edward Gasson  Lauren Gregoire  Niall Gandy  Chris R. Stokes  David Small 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):946-960

Palaeo-ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model-based approaches. To achieve this goal, model-data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice-flow direction and flow-switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice-free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.  相似文献   

Publishing Ethics     

Giovanni Barla  Herbert Einstein  Kalman Kovari 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2014,47(2):333-333

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Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

Preliminary Interlaboratory Trial for ISO/DIS 12010: Determination of Short Chain Polychlorinated Alkanes (SCCP) in Water     

Sabine Geiß  Nicole Lettmann  Aurélien Rey  Herbert Lepper  Birgit Körner  Silvio Mais  Theodor Prey  Bettina Hilger  Moana Engelke  Stephan Lebertz  Claudine Chatellier  George Sawal  Dirk Löffler  Tom Schillings 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2011,39(6):537-542

A first preliminary interlaboratory trial was planned to prepare ISO/DIS 12010: Water quality – determination of short chain polychlorinated alkanes (SCCP) in water – method using GC/MS and electron capture negative ionisation (ECNI). The task was to determine the sum of short chain polychlorinated n‐alkanes with carbon chain lengths of C₁₀–C₁₃ and a chlorine content between 49 and 67% in water by GC‐ECNI‐MS and quantification by multiple linear regression described in ISO/DIS 12010 as the compulsory method. Distributed samples were obtained from a real water extract spiked with a target concentration of 0.4 µg/mL sum of SCCP, i.e. the environmental quality target level according to the Water Framework Directive. The interlaboratory trial included the calibration, a column chromatographic clean up, a concentration step and an integration of chromatographic unresolved humps as well as the quantification with multiple linear regression. Reproducibility standard deviations between 21.5 and 22.9% were achieved by 17 participating laboratories from four countries. The method outlined no significant difference of the results between the standard solution and a real water matrix extract. On the basis of this succeeded preliminary interlaboratory trial the final interlaboratory trial for validation of ISO 12010 was prepared in autumn 2010.  相似文献   

A) A. I. H. S. / A) I. A. S. H.     

Herbert B. OSBORN  William N. REYNOLDS 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):71-78

Abstract

In the Southwestern intermountain and high plains areas, precipitation is seasonal, with the major part of the rainfall occurring in the summer. Most winter precipitation occurs as low-intensity rain or snow along slow-moving cold fronts. Most summer precipitation occurs as short-duration, high-intensity thunderstorms from purely convective buildup or from convective cells developing along a weak fast-moving cold front. Almost all runoff occurs from the summer convective storms.

Since runoff-producing precipitation is of primary interest at the Southwest Watershed Research Center, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, Arizona, the convective storms have been most thoroughly analyzed. Duration, intensity, areal extent, movement, character, and return frequencies for varying volumes and intensities of these convective storms are analyzed from records from dense networks of recording rain gages in four study areas in Arizona and New Mexico. The primary study areas are the 58-square-mile Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed at Tombstone, Arizona, and the 67-squaremile Alamogordo Creek Watershed near Santa Rosa, New Mexico. Three “record” storms of differing character occurring in 1960 and 1961 on Alamogordo Creek Watershed and one “record” storm in 1961 on the Wlanut Gulch Watershed are analyzed and compared in detail.  相似文献   

Cadmium release caused by the die-back of the saltmarsh cord grass Spartina anglica in Poole Harbour (UK)     

Ralf Hübner  Roger J.H. Herbert  K. Brian Astin 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

As in many other areas, the perennial cord grass Spartina anglica C.E. Hubbard has been extremely successful at colonising the English and Irish south coasts, but it is dying back for reasons that are not completely understood. The present study considers the relationship between die-back and metal concentrations in estuarine sediment. No obvious impact of the metal contamination on the S. anglica growth/die-back could be detected in the study zone, Poole Harbour, although the die-back did seem to have substantially influenced the metal concentrations in the sediments of the estuary. Based on core profiles, the remaining patches of S. anglica still retain elevated concentrations and the overall cadmium concentrations in the sediments have risen since 1925. However, considerable quantities of the cadmium stored in the sediment by S. anglica appear to have been washed out rapidly in the die-back zones. Should serious erosion of the saltmarsh occur, triggered for example by sea-level rise, then sudden and high levels of cadmium release may cause harmful effects to marine biota.  相似文献   

Manuscripts Using Numerical Discrete Element Methods     

Giovanni Barla  Herbert Einstein  Kalman Kovari 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2013,46(4):655-655

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The geochemistry of lead in rivers,estuaries and the continental shelf of the Southeastern United States     

Herbert L Windom  Ralph G Smith  Masaru Maeda 《Marine Chemistry》1985,17(1):43-56

Transport by southeastern rivers has insignificant influence on the lead concentration of southeastern shelf waters. If the rate of mobilization and transport of lead by these rivers is representative of uncontaminated fluvial transport during the Pleistocene, only about 5% of the prehistoric output of lead to the North Atlantic can be accounted for by river input.Lead concentrations in southeastern shelf waters are similar to those of North Atlantic Water from the upper 1000 m, which is probably similar to the intrusion source water for the shelf. Atmospheric inputs to the shelf of the same magnitude as observed for the Western North Atlantic are difficult to reconcile given the residence time of shelf waters and their lead concentration unless the rate of loss of lead to shelf sediments is about the same as the atmospheric flux.  相似文献   

Representation of Uncertainty and Integration of PGIS-based Grazing Intensity Maps Using Evidential Belief Functions     

Jane Bemigisha  John Carranza  rew K. Skidmore  Mike McCall  Chiara Polce  Herbert H.T. Prins 《Transactions in GIS》2009,13(3):273-293

In a project to classify livestock grazing intensity using participatory geographic information systems (PGIS), we encountered the problem of how to synthesize PGIS-based maps of livestock grazing intensity that were prepared separately by local experts. We investigated the utility of evidential belief functions (EBFs) and Dempster's rule of combination to represent classification uncertainty and integrate the PGIS-based grazing intensity maps. These maps were used as individual sets of evidence in the application of EBFs to evaluate the proposition that " This area or pixel belongs to the high, medium, or low grazing intensity class because the local expert(s) says (say) so ". The class-area-weighted averages of EBFs based on each of the PGIS-based maps show that the lowest degree of classification uncertainty is associated with maps in which "vegetation species" was used as the mapping criterion. This criterion, together with local landscape attributes of livestock use may be considered as an appropriate standard measure for grazing intensity. The maps of integrated EBFs of grazing intensity show that classification uncertainty is high when the local experts apply at least two mapping criteria together. This study demonstrates the usefulness of EBFs to represent classification uncertainty and the possibility to use the EBF values in identifying and using criteria for PGIS-based mapping of livestock grazing intensity.  相似文献   

Trend analysis of extreme thermal indices in south Brazil (1971 to 2014)     

Deise F. Ely  Guillaume Fortin 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,139(3):1045-1056

Southern Brazil has recently been the subject of many major natural hazards from weather and climatic origin, including violent floods in 2016 caused by very heavy rains. It has also experienced episodes of droughts and heat waves in recent years. The state of Paraná, located at the climatic transition zone, has densely populated urban areas, vast cultivation areas, and hydro-electric reservoirs (more than 20), so those extreme events are letting local populations vulnerable to the vagaries of the climate and their impacts on community, infrastructure, and ecosystem. This study analyzes climatic variability and trends of about ten climatic indices (with RClimDex), calculated by using daily thermal data of ten stations spread mainly in two geographic regions of Paraná. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were applied for trends analysis and determine the presence of breakpoints in the time series (1971–2014). Our results showed that for the various thermal indices, there is a reduction of the cold days on all the stations, indicating a more pronounced increase of the indices based on the maximum temperatures (TX), especially in the north. On the other hand, the indexes based on minimum temperatures (TN) show a more modest and partial increase, varying accordingly to the location of the stations. Regionally, the trends calculated were similar, that is, North region presents a more expressive increase of the indices of heat whereas in the east predominates a reduction.  相似文献